Newsletter summary
The price of manganese silicon may peak, the position of PCR falls back after the innovation is high, market sentiment swings, there is a pullback risk; options market transactions focus on put options, indicating that the upward sustainability is not strong; the current hidden wave is at a historical high, it is not recommended to buy more to catch up. Risk points include illiquidity in the options market and continuous fermentation of supply-side events.
Text of news flash
[traders should be on guard against downside risks in manganese silicon futures market]
Recently, the manganese silicon futures marketPowerballdrawingtodayThe position PCR (the ratio of position to trading volume) fell slightly after hitting a new high, indicating fluctuations in capital sentiment and uncertainty about the trend at a later stage. According to historical data, when PCR positions fall from their highs, there is a relatively high probability that the price of the subject matter will fall in the next three days.
In addition, trading data in the manganese silicon options market show that trading volume PCR continues to rise, and market transactions are mainly concentrated on put options. This may imply that the market is cautious about the continued rise in manganese silicon prices. Further analysis shows that when the position PCR is high, if the trading volume PCR and the position PCR rise simultaneously, the future rate of return is often lower than that when the position PCR rises and the trading volume PCR decreases, which further supports the view that the upward persistence of manganese silicon price is not strong.
From the perspective of volatility, the implied volatility of manganese silicon futures is at an all-time high, which means that the performance-to-price ratio of call options is not ideal. At the same time, the volatility of virtual put options shows an upward trend, indicating an increase in market demand for protection. Taken together, under the current environment, investors should not pursue the rally excessively.
Risk points that need to be noted include the lack of liquidity in the options market and the continued fermentation of supply-side events, which may have an impact on the price of manganese silicon.
